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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."